What is forecast
On 10 September 2026 NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Advisory, stating that El Niño is strengthening with “a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27” and “a 75% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950”. If that happens, this winter would be compared with 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16, the strongest El Niños of the modern record.
El Niño is a warming of the tropical Pacific that shifts the jet streams. It tilts the odds for a whole season; it does not decide any one storm. What follows is what past El Niño winters have tended to bring, and the record shows that even the strongest events differ from each other.
Western United States: the south wins, the north waits
The clearest El Niño signal anywhere is a wetter winter across the southern United States, from California through Arizona and New Mexico to the southern Rockies. For skiers that favours the Sierra Nevada (Mammoth, Palisades Tahoe, Heavenly), Taos in New Mexico and the southern Colorado resorts such as Telluride, and to a lesser extent Utah. The northern Rockies and the Pacific Northwest tend to be warmer and drier than usual: Jackson Hole, Big Sky, Sun Valley and the Washington and Oregon resorts have had more lean El Niño winters than good ones. Colorado’s central resorts sit between the two and can go either way.
The caveat is 2015/16. That very strong El Niño was expected to end California’s drought and instead delivered a near-average Sierra winter, while 1982/83 and 1997/98 buried it. Strong El Niño improves the Sierra’s odds; it does not guarantee a big year.
Canada: milder, especially in the west
El Niño winters in Canada are usually warmer than average across the west and the prairies, with less snow in the interior of British Columbia and around the Great Lakes. Whistler, closest to the Pacific, has had wet, mild El Niño winters with rain at the village and snow only up high. The Banff resorts, with their altitude and cold, are less affected. Quebec’s signal is weaker.
The Alps and the Pyrenees: no reliable signal
El Niño’s influence on Europe is weak and inconsistent, and forecasters do not use it to predict Alpine snow. Some research links El Niño to a colder, snowier late winter in parts of central Europe, but the effect is small next to the ordinary year-to-year swing of Atlantic weather. For the Alps, the honest outlook is the usual one: watch the autumn, and book high.
Japan: expect a milder winter
The Japan Meteorological Agency’s own analysis is that El Niño winters tend to be warmer than usual across Japan, with the winter monsoon that drives Sea of Japan snowfall weaker than normal. That points to less snow than the ten-year averages on the resort pages for Hokkaido and Nagano, and a higher snow line. Japan’s baseline is so high that a below-average Niseko winter would still be a good winter almost anywhere else, but the powder days may be fewer and the season shorter at its edges.
Australia and New Zealand
Australia’s 2026 season is nearly over, and the Bureau of Meteorology’s guidance is that El Niño years bring drier, warmer conditions to the south-east, which is bad for the Snowy Mountains and the Victorian Alps. For 2027, if El Niño persists into the southern winter, the same applies. In New Zealand, NIWA’s guidance is that El Niño brings stronger, cooler south-westerlies, which tends to help the South Island ski fields rather than hurt them.
The Andes
Central Chile and the Argentine Andes usually get wetter winters in El Niño years, which is good for Portillo, Valle Nevado and Las Leñas. The 2026 season is ending as this is written; it is the 2027 season that would benefit if the event lasts, and very strong events often fade by the following southern winter.
How to use this
- Treat it as a tilt, not a forecast. Nobody knows what any given week will bring in January.
- If you are choosing between regions for a January or February trip, this year favours the Sierra Nevada, the southern Rockies and, in general, altitude over latitude.
- Book on the snow record, not on the outlook. Every resort page here shows how often it snows in each month and how the last ten winters compared, which is a better guide to a normal year than any seasonal forecast.
- Watch the 14-day outlook on each resort page from about mid-November; that is where a real signal first shows up.
This page will be updated when NOAA’s monthly discussion changes the picture.